![]() One thing I've noticed since I entered this subculture five years ago is that serious baseball bettors tend to be huge baseball fans. It's about enjoying one of the most anticipated World Series games in at least 15 and possibly 30 years. ![]() Honestly, though, Wednesday night isn't about a perfect bracket, or "capping" that final game correctly. But our eyes often lie, and in my quest to complete the perfect postseason bracket, I'm sticking with the edge my numbers see for the Cubs. My eyes can see (just like yours) that the Cubs' supposed top-to-bottom lineup strength appears to have vanished due to the struggles of Jason Heyward, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. I won't be making that case, though, and if I'm wrong about this game and ultimately this series, it's because my model overrated the Cubs offense. All of which is to say, with the better and more rested bullpen, you can definitely make the case that tonight's value lies with Cleveland. ![]() By virtue of the dime-line math, all 10-cent, or in this case 15-cent, moves are not created equal - not even close - and in fact, a move from -110 to 105 is nearly the biggest change in implied win expectancy possible. Quickly the odds changed to what you see now, as Cubs money poured in. Sure enough, when the initial lines were posted in Las Vegas last night, the Indians were -110 favorites. Joe Peta: Before Tuesday's game, the separately listed odds on both Game 6 and the Cubs winning the World Series implied the Indians would be small favorites in Game 7. ![]()
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